Swedish Football

Last summer with the end of the English football season I decided to look into betting on the scandinavian football leagues through the quiet period. This season I've decided to concentrate on the Swedish Allsvenskan. With 10 games into the season it's time to use my ratings to try and find some value bets.
 This week there are just 2 games that fit the profile.

Helsingborgs vs Djurgardens - Lay Home@1.64(2.27).

Sundsvall vs Malmo - Lay Away@1.85(3.69) & Back Over 2.5 goals@1.85(1.51).

The Betfair odds for the latter match look totally different compared to my odds. This is mainly due to the fact that the home team is a newly promoted team and Malmo are 2nd in the league. That explains Betfair's odds. My odds just take into account goals scored and conceded. If you look at Malmo's away form they have conceded a fair few goals in their last 5 games so that's why my odds are so different.

Green figures are the Betfair odds and Yellow figures are my odds.

25/02/12 Premier League Betting

Chelsea vs Bolton - Lay Home@1.31(1.96).

W.B.A. vs Sunderland - Lay Home@2.5(4.39).

Wigan vs Aston Villa - Lay Away@2.65(1.95).

Arsenal vs Tottenham - Home Win@2.56(1.87).

Norwich vs Man Utd - Lay Away@1.55(2.14).

These are my picks for this weekend in the Premier League. As you can see there are no goals bets which is the 1st time that has happened. All the Betfair odds and my odds are far too similar in the unders/overs markets.

 As I say every time you'd think that big favourites like Man Utd and Chelsea will win but the odds on Betfair don't represent any value so shouldn't be backed.

 The game that interests me is sunday's north London derby at Arsenal. Tottenham are higher in the league but past results have the home side at an advantage. I don't think there will be a shortage of goals and should be a great game to watch...and trade.

11/02/12 Premier League Betting

There's only two games that look to have any value in this week. In the Everton vs Chelsea game to value looks to be in the under 1.5 and 2.5 goals markets. I have the former at 2.3(3.35) and the latter at 1.42(1.79). The away side in the Sunderland vs Arsenal game look far too short when compared to my odds. I think they should be around the 4.39 mark but on  Betfair they are 2.06 so I'll be laying them.

I Need Some Help....

....With using a spreadsheet more efficiantly. At the moment I input the Premier League fulltime scores into one spreadsheet then take the end results and put it into another spreadsheet and then another one to get to the outcome for my odds. What I want is to just type in the scores and the spreadsheet just does the rest. I've tried getting it all linked together but with no luck. I haven't a clue about all the codes or formulas etc. I'm not very computer minded! Any help would be appreciated.

21/01/12 Premier League Betting

After a profit of 1.17 points on last weekends' Premier League bets let's see if my ratings can predict more profits.

Bolton vs Liverpool - Lay Liverpool@1.63(2.58).
Everton vs Blackburn - Lay Everton@1.58(2.26).
Fulham vs Newcastle - Back over 2.5 goals@2.16(1.67).
Q.P.R vs Wigan - Back Wigan@3.94(2.62) and Back over 2.5 goals@2.16(1.61).
Arsenal vs Man Utd - Back under 2.5 goals@2.12(1.6)

It's been a while since I've posted on the blog mainly due to the recent festivities! I hadn't the time to write  of any value bets that came up whilst looking at my ratings and typically there were plenty of short odds favourites highlighted that were ripe for laying which ended up as winning bets.

Onto the games this weekend. Again the ratings are highlighting that the strong favourites have odds that are far too low. Now that is not to say that they won't win, most probably they will but if you backed them every week at these low odds you would be down in the long term. Just look at some of the results over the festive period to see that sometimes the heavily backed favourite can lose.

Chelsea vs Sunderland - Lay Chelsea@1.41(2.48).
Man Utd vs Bolton - Lay Man Utd@1.17(1.52).
Tottenham vs Wolves - Lay Tottenham@1.28(1.56), Back under 1.5 goals@5.8(3.01), Back under 2.5 goals@2.62(1.67).
Newcastle vs Q.P.R. - Lay Newcastle@1.77(2.41).
Swansea vs Arsenal - Lay Arsenal@1.81(2.61).
Wigan vs Man City - Lay Man City@1.44(1.96).

In tomorrows Premier League matches my odds are very similar to those on Betfair in most of the matches. Only 2 games stand out; Everton vs Swansea and Fulham vs Man Utd. In both I'll be laying the favourite team. Everton at 1.63(2.28) and Man Utd at 1.79(2.58).